Population growth driven by soaring immigration 'could mean England needs to build 500,000 new homes a year'

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By James Tapsfield, Political Editor For Mailonline

Published: 06:46 EST, 21 February 2024 | Updated: 06:54 EST, 21 February 2024

Soaring immigration could mean the government has to build half a million new homes every year, according to stark new calculations.

Concerns have been raised after eye-watering projections last month indicated that the population is now due to hit 70million by 2026 - a decade earlier than previously thought.

The Office for National Statistics expects numbers will go from 67million in mid-2021 to reach 73.7million by 2036, with 6.1million of that growth down to net migration.

Analysis by the Financial Times estimated that would require 421,000 new homes per year between 2023 and 2036. 

However, the number could be up to 529,000 if current levels of net migration continue. 

That compares to a government target of building 300,000 a year, which critics argue is unlikely to be hit soon. The figure for 2022-23 was 240,000.

Analysis by the Financial Times estimated that population growth will require 421,000 new homes per year between 2023 and 2036

The level is even higher than suggested by the Centre for Policy Studies last month. The think-tank reckoned that at least 5.7million more homes would be needed in England between 2021 and 2036.

Around 41 per cent of that - 2.34million homes, or 156,000 a year - was accounted for net migration. 

The FT produced its figures using the methodology in a 2018 report by Heriot-Watt University, commissioned by the National Housing Federation and homelessness charity Crisis.

That was updated with the latest ONS population data and projections on net migration from Oxford university's Migration Observatory.

According to the ONS projections net migration will hit 315,000 a year from 2028 onwards – putting a strain on public services.

The 9.9 per cent hike in the population between 2021 and 2036 includes net inward migration of 6.1 million, as well as 541,000 more births than deaths.

The estimates come with the caveat that should net migration be lower then they can change significantly. 

Critics have claimed the figures showed the Government needed swift action to prevent a looming crisis and called on Mr Sunak to deliver on his pledge to bring migration down.

The level is even higher than suggested by the Centre for Policy Studies last month. The think-tank reckoned that at least 5.7million more homes would be needed in England between 2021 and 2036 

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