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It may end up being Hamlet without the prince or, perhaps more aptly, Jaws without the shark.
When Republicans gather in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on Wednesday for the first debate of the presidential primary season, a milestone in any election campaign cycle, the clear frontrunner in the opinion polls will be missing.
Donald Trump, the former US president, has said he is unlikely to take part in the debate hosted by the conservative Fox News network. It is speculated that he could deploy “counter-programming” to steal the limelight and dominate the news cycle.
That leaves seven other candidates who have met the Republican National Committee’s polling and donor requirements to qualify: Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy and Tim Scott. Political analysts suggest that Trump will stay away because he has nothing to gain and everything to lose.
“I don’t think that he’ll show up to that debate because he’s scared to death of the level of scrutiny that he would receive from someone like Chris Christie,” said Tara Setmayer, a former Republican communications director on Capitol Hill. “When you are that far ahead there’s no reason for you to step on to a debate stage because the only thing that can happen is you run the greater risk of it being a negative for you.”
Even in his absence, Trump’s ever-mushrooming legal troubles are sure to loom over the debate. The ex-president is facing 91 charges in four criminal cases – indictments that have come to seem almost routine but are historically unique in putting America’s electoral and judicial systems on collision course.
Setmayer noted: “None of the candidates other than Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson – who are polling at 2%, 1% in some places – are willing to take him on directly about the indictments. They’ve been scared to take him on directly. It is the most bizarre campaign competition I’ve ever seen in my 30 years in politics.”
The debate will be moderated by the Fox News hosts Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum. In an interview with the Politico website, Baier acknowledged that Trump will be inescapable. He said: “If he’s not there, he’ll still be there. In other words, he’ll be a part of questioning. There may be soundbites, there may be elements where ‘this is what the leader of the primary says about this issue.’ He’ll be there, even if he’s not there.”
Baier and MacCallum are likely to cover a variety of topics, including abortion, the economy and whether Trump should be pardoned for any federal crimes of which he is convicted.
Setmayer believes one question is fundamental. “Do you believe that Joe Biden is the duly elected president of the United States and that the 2020 election was not stolen? Any other answer than yes is inconsequential because if they don’t believe in something as fundamental as our election system they’re disqualified from the top.”
But so far the Republican primary campaign has been notable for how few candidates have been willing to denounce Trump over his attacks on democracy culminating in the January 6 insurrection or other aspects of chaotic presidency.
This week the New York Times reported on memos, commissioned by the pro-DeSantis spending group Never Back Down, arguing that DeSantis should defend Trump at the debate and go on the attack against campaign rival Ramaswamy.
Haley, Ramaswamy and Scott have all been notably reluctant to condemn Trump on the campaign trail. Pence, the former vice-president, has broken from his old boss over his 2020 election lies but still insists that he was “proud” to serve in the Trump-Pence administration.
Aaron Kall, director of debate at the University of Michigan, said: “The catch-22 in these debates is that even if Trump is not there as a frontrunner and there’s technically an opportunity for others, if they’re forced into a bunch of questions and their answers are basically defending Trump then it’s almost impossible for them to make up any ground. They know that there’s a lot of base support for Trump and they don’t want to alienate his voters and they likely need his voters to win. It’s a real tough dilemma for these other candidates.”
Trump has skipped crucial debates before. In early 2016 he boycotted a Republican primary debate in Des Moines, Iowa, because of a dispute over the host Megyn Kelly. He may have paid a price: four days later he lost to Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses despite having led in the polls.
Perhaps no one will be feeling the pressure more than DeSantis, the governor of Florida, who is second behind Trump in most surveys and fired his campaign manager earlier this month after underperforming expectations. His debating skills are under scrutiny after he was caught flat-footed by his Democratic rival, Charlie Crist, during his re-election campaign last year.
Kall observed: “The best bet is in the absence of the frontrunner then the number two becomes the frontrunner for the purpose of the debate and has the bullseye on their back. I do think it’s going to be Governor DeSantis. Everyone else is going to want to be him and present themselves as the most viable alternative to Trump.”
In a preview of a possible attack line, at least two candidates this week revived DeSantis’s gaffe describing Ukraine’s war against Russian aggression as a “territorial dispute”. Haley tweeted: “Too much is at stake to think the Russian war is just a ‘territorial dispute’.” Christie wrote: “The war in Ukraine is not a territorial dispute.”
Christie memorably eviscerated Senator Marco Rubio in a 2016 primary debate by mocking his rehearsed line repetition. Now he could have another Floridian in his sights.
Kall added: “Christie was an excellent attack dog in the last cycle. He may have singlehandedly ended Rubio’s campaign. He was good at identifying some of the verbal tics and things that maybe were a little bit too obvious and repetitive in Marco Rubio’s debate strategy. But Christie in some ways last time proved an enabler or helper for Donald Trump because he helped take out some of his main competition.
“One of the risks when you have a large field like that is the more candidates there are, the more they could take each other out and then the person that ends up the lone survivor is the one that started out with a big lead at the beginning. So Trump benefits from people doing that.”
Trump dominated debates in 2016 with personal insults and name-calling. In theory, his absence could prompt a return to civility and a more moderate tone reminiscent of debates of the past.
Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, a 38-year-old political novice, told reporters at the Iowa State Fair last week: “I will be unafraid to draw policy contrasts but I’m not personally attacking anybody in this race. Now, believe me, I’m somebody who holds my ground … So if somebody’s going to come for me, come at your own peril. But I’m not in this race to take somebody else down. I’m in this race to lead us to our vision of what it means to be American.”
However, the debate also offers candidates their last best chance to achieve a breakout moment, close the gap on Trump and deliver a blow to their rivals. Christie, DeSantis and others are unlikely to be pulling any punches in the politics-as-bloodsport era of Trump.
Kevin Madden, a senior strategist and spokesman on three presidential campaigns, including Mitt Romney’s run in 2012, said: “The one debate the rule that I would be counselling a candidate on if I was asked to prepare them right now would be that if you’re not on offence in the debate, you’ve lost.
“It’s not a time to pull out charts and start to go over the nuances or argue the details of policy but instead it’s crystallise your message and draw a contrast with your opponent and find a way to stand out. Find a way to create some relatability and make a connection with the average voter out there who’s yet to make up their mind or is about to hear from you for the first time. Make your best first impression.”
Will some of them be auditioning to be Trump’s running mate? Madden, a senior partner at Penta, a stakeholder solutions firm, added: “If that is your approach then you’ve already lost. If you’re worried about what Donald Trump’s going to think about you, why are you even running?”
But perhaps the bigger winner of the debate will be Joe Biden. The spectacle of Republicans tearing into each other in a battleground state and struggling to emerge from Trump’s shadow could play into Democrats’ hands. The party plans to coat Milwaukee with ads listing Biden’s “record of accomplishments”, drive a billboard truck circling the debate venue and launch its first advertising campaign aimed at Black and Latino voters.
